🔗 Share this article Will the Scottish team at last break their long-standing losing streak? The All Blacks have made several changes to the side that beat the Irish team Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks Venue: Murrayfield Stadium, the Scottish capital Date: Saturday, 8 November Time: 15:10 GMT The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement. Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match. A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride." Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off. A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued. Modern Encounters Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes. In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos. Team News In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail. Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they secure victory. As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality. Key Absences Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts. The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying. In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations. Squad Depth Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years. Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class. Coaching Choices Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach. The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable. Past Encounters Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the 31-23 defeat to New Zealand in the previous encounter Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick. Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. Statistical Analysis For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime. They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively. What Scotland Needs Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points. The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity. Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand. Final Analysis Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over. With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham. Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.