Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
