🔗 Share this article

While dawn was breaking the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, delegates remained trapped in a windowless conference room, unaware whether it was day or night. They had been 12 hours in strained discussions, with dozens ministers representing multiple blocs of countries from the least developed nations to the most developed economies.

Patience wore thin, the air heavy as weary delegates acknowledged the grim reality: there would not be a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The latest global climate summit hovered near the brink of abject failure.

The major obstacle: Fossil fuels

Research has demonstrated for nearly a century, the carbon dioxide produced by burning fossil fuels is increasing temperatures on our planet to critical levels.

Yet, during over three decades of yearly climate meetings, the crucial requirement to cease fossil fuel use has been addressed only once – in a resolution made two years ago at Cop28 to "transition away from fossil fuels". Delegates from the Arab Group, Russia, and several other countries were resolved this would not happen again.

Mounting support for change

Meanwhile, a increasing coalition of countries were similarly resolved that progress on this issue was vitally needed. They had created a plan that was attracting increasing support and made it evident they were willing to dig in.

Emerging economies urgently needed to make progress on securing economic resources to help them address the increasingly severe impacts of environmental crises.

Critical moment

By the early hours of Saturday, some delegates were willing to leave and trigger failure. "It was on the edge for us," commented one national delegate. "I was prepared to walk away."

The breakthrough occurred through negotiations with Saudi Arabia. Around 6am, senior representatives left the main group to hold a closed-door meeting with the head Saudi negotiator. They urged text that would subtly reference the global commitment to "move beyond fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Surprising consensus

As opposed to explicitly referencing fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the Dubai agreement". Following reflection, the Saudi delegation unexpectedly accepted the wording.

Delegates collapsed into relief. Cheers erupted. The settlement was finalized.

With what became known as the "Brazil agreement", the world took an incremental move towards the systematic reduction of fossil fuels – a hesitant, insufficient step that will minimally impact the climate's continued progression towards catastrophe. But nevertheless a important shift from total inaction.

Key elements of the agreement

• Complementing the oblique commitment in the formal agreement, countries will start developing a plan to gradually eliminate fossil fuels
• This will be mostly a non-binding program led by Brazil that will provide updates next year
• Addressing the required reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to not exceed the 1.5C limit was likewise deferred to next year
• Developing countries obtained a significant expansion to $120bn of yearly funding to help them cope with the impacts of extreme weather
• This amount will not be completely provided until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "just transition mechanism" to help people working in high-carbon industries shift to the sustainable sector

Varied responses

With global conditions approaches the brink of climate "tipping points" that could eliminate habitats and force whole regions into crisis, the agreement was far from the "major breakthrough" needed.

"The summit provided some modest progress in the right direction, but considering the magnitude of the climate crisis, it has failed to rise to the occasion," warned one policy director.

This flawed deal might have been all that was possible, given the international tensions – including a Washington administration who avoided the talks and remains aligned with oil and coal, the rising tide of nationalist politics, continuing wars in multiple regions, extreme measures of inequality, and global economic instability.

"Major polluters – the oil and gas companies – were at last in the crosshairs at these negotiations," notes one environmental advocate. "We have crossed a threshold on that. The platform is available. Now we must turn it into a real fire escape to a safer world."

Deep fissures revealed

Even as nations were able to welcome the gavelling through of the deal, Cop30 also revealed significant divisions in the only global process for confronting the climate crisis.

"UN negotiations are unanimity-required, and in a time of international tensions, unanimity is ever harder to reach," commented one senior UN official. "I cannot pretend that Cop30 has provided all that is needed. The disparity between where we are and what research requires remains alarmingly large."

When the world is to avoid the gravest consequences of climate collapse, the global discussions alone will not be nearly enough.