Could a US Interest Rate Cut Revive the Real Estate Market?

Residential homes in a US neighborhood
Drone shot of single-family homes in an urban US location

Aileen Barrameda is preparing to acquire a house in Los Angeles in the coming months. Even with elevated mortgage rates—currently twice what they were at the beginning of the health crisis—she remains optimistic.

"When I have the resources to get into the housing market, I should do it now, because houses are bound to get pricier," she stated.

The cost of homes remains a major worry among Americans and a frequent point in political discussions. Many had expected that reductions in borrowing costs from the Federal Reserve would enable more people to obtain mortgages.

As reported by a leading mortgage agency, the typical rate on a 30-year home loan—the most common option in the US—declined to 6.35% recently. This marked the largest seven-day decline in the past year and the lowest level in 11 months.

However, for prospective purchasers, borrowing costs are unlikely to drop drastically than they currently stand, even after the Federal Reserve's rate reduction on Wednesday.

A prospective homebuyer in a residential area
An aspiring homebuyer from Los Angeles stands on a residential street

It is important to note that the Federal Reserve's rate decisions do not immediately influence mortgage rates. Instead, they alter the rates that financial institutions apply each other for overnight loans.

That, in turn, influences what lenders charge their clients for mortgages and what they pay on savings.

However, US banks had previously cut mortgage rates in anticipation of the Fed's action, meaning that more drops may be modest. Potential home buyers expecting substantial easing could be let down.

Federal Reserve Chairman the central bank chief noted as much in a statement on Wednesday.

"Most analysts believe it would require a pretty big drop in rates to make a difference greatly for the real estate market," he noted, while also noting that reduced interest rates might boost demand and benefit builders.

At the same time, the chance of increasing inflation could drive mortgage rates higher if lenders expect that the Fed will hold off on reducing rates again any time soon. Central banks usually refrain from lowering borrowing costs when price increases is seen as a concern.

"I do think that people are expecting a big effect from the rate cut," stated Nicole Stewart based in Boise, Idaho.

"I have trying to notify most of my clients, as well as my homeowners, that we've largely experienced the bulk of what's likely to happen."

Ms Stewart noted that the recent fall in mortgage rates over the past month has motivated a number of buyers. In fact, over one weekend earlier this month, she submitted four offers and put several agreements into escrow.

"A significant rise from anything in the last several years," she stated.

But, the American real estate sector remains unaffordable for many people. This problem is unlikely to be addressed by future Federal Reserve actions or the current drop in mortgage rates.

A significant number of homeowners secured unusually low mortgage rates—in the 3 percent level—during the peak of the coronavirus crisis, which they are unwilling to relinquish by selling their properties. As a result, owners who might normally downsize are choosing to stay put, reducing the supply of houses for sale and pushing up property values.

Approximately 80% of home loan holders have locked in a rate below the present typical of 6.35 percent, as noted by a finance professor at the University of Illinois.

Although every decrease in mortgage rates helps loosen the market somewhat, there are no indications of major relief on the horizon, the expert commented.

"We might be still a long way from balancing these markets," she added.
A first-time homebuyer in a residential neighborhood
Kristin Carlson in the Boise, Idaho area is pictured on a neighborhood road

Another prospective buyer, a new homebuyer in the Boise area, has been exploring the market for several years, while leases in the interim.

In her case, the lowering mortgage rates in the past month mean she is "just that much closer to pulling the trigger". She said she is keen to purchase quickly to beat a possible scenario in which rates fall substantially further, triggering more bidding wars.

Borrowing costs are factoring into Ms Carlson's decision-making when it comes to the style of home that is affordable for her to purchase—including the location, size, and quality of the developer.

However, mortgage rates are taking a backseat to additional considerations, including time of year and locating a home that fits her needs.

Modestly lower mortgage rates are giving a degree of benefit and stimulating activity among buyers, commented a lending executive at a major US bank. But on a bigger picture, the dip is not sufficient to resolve a housing market facing challenges.

"There's tempered confidence that we're headed in the right direction," he said.
"It's unlikely it's fundamentally changed buyers' perception of the challenges in the market, but it's certainly gained their interest."
Fernando Phillips
Fernando Phillips

A seasoned entrepreneur and productivity coach with over a decade of experience in helping individuals maximize their potential and scale their ventures.