A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
